9/12/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville, Christmas Handicap day

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Nine races will be run and won at Morphettville on Saturday for Christmas Handicap Day. Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.

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Christmas Handicap 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Christmas Handicap

Race 1. (12:47) Thomas Farms Plate 1000m

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5 Wolfgang (Bet Now: 
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) on top for me. Kennewell/Yeomans trained colt that debuted in the Maribyrnong Trial at Flemington in early October when raw and new to the racing caper but for the most part, he was far from disgraced in defeat behind Bodyguard. Recent jumpout work has been encouraging, he lands in a plum spot from gate one and all things being equal, I think he has a bit on them.

Danger

3 Dancing Storm (Bet Now: 
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) is a Sir Prancealot gelding for Team Jolly. He ran in the Gawler trials from a couple of weeks ago where he was a bit lost early it seemed but switched on in the straight and found the line really nicely to run a close up third. Stable usually fire with their youngsters, especially early on in their career, so I am thinking this guy is one of the leading contenders.

Long Shot

7 Darlinc (Bet Now: 
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) will land on speed and give cheek. She did that when she ran at the Gawler trials and moved quite well it seemed, only getting run down late, but wasn’t really asked for a big effort. Not sure she wins, but she’ll acquit herself well enough I’d suggest and can pinch a place spot at odds.

Race 2. (13:22) Twilight Races At Morph Mdn 1200m

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1 Foxhow (Bet Now: 
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) on top but not a whole lot of confidence. Clinton McDonald trained gelding that resumes, having not raced since April 20 at Pakenham when seemingly having his chance but was far from disgraced in defeat. The stable don’t send them over for nothing and I can only assume 1200m first up means intent to get a maiden kill.

Danger

11 Manuka Bay (Bet Now: 
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) should be suited back up in trip for Travis Doudle. This mare resumed over this trip at Gawler when on speed and sticking on well in defeat when third before coming back to 1050m at Balaklava where she seemingly had every chance but was still good in defeat, finishing third again. Back up to 1200m suits and third up from a spell, she should be at peak fitness.

Long Shot

10 Cuban Waters (Bet Now: 
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) is a Searle/Callinan trained mare that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since October 8 when back off the speed and making up minimal headway when down the track behind Dare To Be Free. Can’t find a trial/jumpout so I think the market will tell you if she’s ready but there is enough in her form to say she’ll be competitive.

Race 3. (13:57) Peter Elberg Funerals (Bm78) 1600m

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2 Midnight Mass (Bet Now: 
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) is absolutely flying for the Bain/Taylor camp and rates as one of the hardest to beat. He ran over this track/distance a fortnight back in the Country Final when leading throughout and he wasn’t getting beat from a fair way out, winning quite comfortably with a safe margin in hand. Been up a little while but certainly isn’t going backwards in form. Leading contender.

Danger

3 Typhoon Harmony (Bet Now: 
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) comes here with fresh legs, four weeks between runs since racing over the mile at Flemington where he wasn’t suited by the sit/sprint and couldn’t dash when the leaders did, finishing down the track behind Watadeel. The depth here is nowhere near as deep and the stable rarely get it wrong when they travel across.

Long Shot

5 Set To Prophet (Bet Now: 
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) is one I can entertain for wider exotics. Grant Young has this guy racing in solid form, his latest run coming over 1800m on Sunday in the Clare Cup where he seemingly had every chance behind the speed but couldn’t quite get there. That said, he was far from disgraced in defeat behind Dazzling Prospect. Back to 1600m should be fine…doubt he wins, but he can pinch a first four spot.

Race 4. (14:32) Dominant (Bm80) 2500m

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1 Hasta La Fiorente (Bet Now: 
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) is a beauty for Sue Murphy and is one of the hardest to beat. He ran in the Skybeau Final two weeks ago at this track/distance where he got back to near last in the run mid race and that was the difference between winning and losing given he got too far back but worked home with real purpose. He can settle much closer and still be effective late.

Danger

2 Ammo Amor (Bet Now: 
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) can bounce back. He was safe in betting in the Skybeau Final but I think for a horse that was a query at the trip, they rode him too warm and he was a tired horse in the straight behind Manzala. I think with a more patient steer, like he got the start prior, that sort of ride will ensure the 2500m being no issue and he can bounce back.

Long Shot

3 Canford (Bet Now: 
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) is an iron horse for Ryan Balfour. He ran in the Skybeau Final where he was last early but made a long run, wide no cover, and tried his guts out, but couldn’t quite sustain it, beaten just under two lengths in a tidy effort. He’s been up a while but if he runs up to recent efforts, he’s around the mark.

Race 5. (15:12) Fleurieu Milk Company (Bm68) 1100m

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1 Imapagethree Girl (Bet Now: 
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) looks like she has her share of talent for Henry Dwyer. 2/2 to start her career, winning on debut at Swan Hill in August before being spelled. She resumed over 1000m at Ballarat when on speed and she got better as the race went on to win and win well in a sharp return. Good test here against likely types, but confident she can measure up.

Danger

2 Zebella (Bet Now: 
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) is a fascinating runner. Phillip Stokes trained mare that had a two run prep during the Adelaide Carnival last season and didn’t fire at all, the latest run being in the Redelva behind I’mlovinya. Given a good break and the recent trial win at Gawler looked sharp to the eye. If she brings her best, she’ll give this an almighty shake.

Long Shot

6 Storm Voyager (Bet Now: 
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) is an honest mare for Darryl Carrison that is rarely far away. That was the case when racing two weeks back here when back in the run and making up solid headway late in the piece behind All Beans. If she can settle closer and be within range, she’s dangerous enough to take this out.

Race 6. (15:52) Skycity (Bm68) 1514m

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3 Chipson (Bet Now: 
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) should prove hard to beat here. Let down with purpose to win at this track/distance two back before backing up a week later over the mile where he was off the speed and kept chasing but was no match late for the in form Midnight Mass. Back in trip should be fine and he only has to hold his form to prove hard to beat.

Danger

4 Master At Arms (Bet Now: 
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) is one of the leading contenders. He was thrown in the deep end a fortnight back in the Happy Trails Final when back off the speed and did make up solid ground without threatening behind surprise winner Danish Fortune, who went close to winning a Stakes race last Saturday, so the form reads super and back to this level, he appeals.

Long Shot

5 Miss Kermie (Bet Now: 
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) is four weeks between runs for Phillip Stokes since racing over 1400m on the Parks track where she was three/four wide no cover for the trip and that burn told late, finishing down the track behind Master At Arms. Prior efforts were strong and the break between runs should ensure she has petrol in the tank to be dangerous.

Race 7. (16:32) Pfd Food Services Hcp (60) 1100m

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3 Bristler (Bet Now: 
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) will jump on the bunny and give a very bold sight. He ran a fortnight back in the Riziz Final where he attempted to lead throughout and gave a very strong kick but couldn’t quite see it through and was run down late by a quality mare, Wakanjeja. The end of 1100m is the knock but with his racing pattern, he’ll give himself every chance.

Danger

2 All Beans (Bet Now: 
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) is flying for Justin Pickering and rates highly. He led throughout to win over 1200m here a fortnight back, producing sustained speed from the front and gave nothing else a look in to win and win well. Back to 1100m should be fine and with the claim for Collett, he gets in really well.

Long Shot

8 Winning Revolution (Bet Now: 
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) is three weeks between runs for Jon O’Connor since resuming here where he got back to near last in the ground and while he was never a threat, he did make up solid headway behind impressive winner La Defense, beaten just over three lengths. He has the potential to settle much closer and still be effective late. Leading contender.

Race 8. (17:12) Christmas Handicap 1200m

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9 Grinzinger Prince (Bet Now: 
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) is an each way bet for me. Cody Reardon has this gelding absolutely flying. Three weeks between runs since racing over this track/distance when lumping 63kg. He sat wide no cover throughout but kept on and was very game in defeat behind Shootoose, who bolted up last Saturday, so the form reads super, and with massive weight relief, I think he only runs well.

Danger

5 Validated (Bet Now: 
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) is a horse I have plenty of time for and he looks hard to beat against these. He ran two weeks ago in the Gytrash Final where he got back to near last and came widest but launched at them late and with full momentum, was able to get the job done. He’ll be spotting them a start again but if he’s within range, he can finish over the top.

Long Shot

3 Struck By (Bet Now: 
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) is an improver at odds. He ran in the Gytrash Final two weeks back when wide no cover throughout and that early burn told in the straight, tiring to finish down the track behind Validated. Maps much better this time around, he’ll land near the front and his very best is clearly good enough.

Race 9. (18:00) Triple M Hcp (C2) 1200m

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1 La Defense (Bet Now: 
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) is heading in the right direction for Clarken/O’Shea. He resumed over 1050m here three weeks ago when met with good market support and despite a few nervous moments, class came to the fore late and gee he was dominant late when asked for the big effort. He’s got enormous upside/improvement and up in trip, I think it’s a case of good luck beating him.

Danger

6 Nasho (Bet Now: 
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) is a leading contender. Team Oxlade trained three year old that comes through the Rebel Raider Final from two weeks ago where he did too much work to hold a spot on speed and that early burn saw him tire late in the piece behind Walk Like An Angel. Much better suited in a race like this and with a more economical run, he can take this out without surprising.

Long Shot

4 The Grey King (Bet Now: 
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) is an improver for David Jolly. Market kept him safe in betting when resuming at Strathalbyn but he was a bit on the plain side I thought after sitting on speed, perhaps using too many petrol tickets early and tiring late. Lightly raced with good upside/improvement and in a good camp, so don’t dismiss him.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 1 La Defense

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 3 Bristler

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 9 Grinzinger Prince

 

Quaddie (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 4, 5, 8

Leg Two: 3

Leg Three: 3, 5, 6, 9, 11

Leg Four: 1

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