Breaking down the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks for this week at Bay Hill with our best bets, One and Done selection and more PGA Tour expert picks.
Bay Hill Club & Lodge will be the host in Orlando this week as we are readying for another PGA Tour designated event at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. With the $20 million purse on the line, the field is once again loaded with defending champion Scottie Scheffler now joined by Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and 10 of the Top 11 players in the OWGR and 44 of the Top 50 players in the world.
We’ve been up and down with our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets for these elevated events thus far but after a solid week at the Honda that was close to being great, we’re about to lock in with our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks.
Robby Shelton finished T21 as a heartbreaker for our Top 20 bet but we were strong in hitting Shane Lowry as a Top 10 and Lowry over Sungjae Im in a matchup. We should’ve had some equity in Chris Kirk but tried to get too cute. Still, it was a profitable week at the Honda and we move forward.
These are the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks and best bets for what should be a great week at Bay Hill.
Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.
Golf betting record in 2023 through Honda: 12-27-1, -3.234 units (0-8 on outrights, 0.5 unit bets | +0.98 units at Honda)
One-and-Done record in 2023: $1,523,924.22 (Shane Lowry at Honda, $288,120)
PGA Tour expert picks for Arnold Palmer Invitational: Winner, Top 10, One and Done
Top 10 pick for Arnold Palmer Invitational: Viktor Hovland (+290)
Admittedly, I’m a sucker for Viktor Hovland but I love all the trends I’m seeing. Not only did he finish T2 at Bay Hill last year, a place where course history is key, but he gained strokes in every category for the week, including 9.18 ball striking. He’s been rounding into that DNA form recently, improving his strokes gained with ball striking in each of the past three tournaments. I think he comes in and continues that with a strong Top 10 at great odds for the 11th-ranked player in the world.
Pick to Win Arnold Palmer Invitational (0.5 Units): Rory McIlroy (+950)
The odds aren’t pretty, but my gut tells me that either Rory McIlroy or Jon Rahm is winning at Arnie’s place this week and I’m going with the slightly better odds. Over the last 20 rounds, Rory is actually gaining 0.2 strokes more tee-to-green than Rahm but the putter has been a bit cold. McIlroy is intimately familiar with Bay Hill, though, as a past champion (2018) and with no finish worse than T13 in the past five starts here. I think in what has been a battle of titans early in the year, Rory puts his hat in the ring with a win.
One and Done Pick for Arnold Palmer Invitational: Jon Rahm
Covering the bases here, the one thing I’ll say about Rahm is that his floor feels so extremely high that it feels wholly necessary to play him as a One and Done at one of the designated events. Wish it would’ve been his win at the Genesis but I still think he has win equity again this week and I’m ready to burn him as a OaD play this week at Bay Hill.
Arnold Palmer Invitational picks and best bets
Jon Rahm to finish Top 5 (+160)
In his last five starts and first five tournaments on the PGA Tour in 2023, Rahm has three victories, a Top 3 and a T7 finish. That’s remarkable and, while it has made his outright odds tough to stomach, I think that the Top 5 odds are more than palatable at this price given that he’s done that at an 80% rate so far this season. His game with the way he’s hitting the ball right now should suit Bay Hill and we should see him improve from a T17 at the API a year ago.
Top 40 Parlay: Chris Kirk and Tyrrell Hatton to both finish Top 40 (+179)
Getting cheeky with these parlays hasn’t been profitable but this one feels too good to pass up. Yes, I don’t love betting on Chris Kirk (or any player) the week after a win, but his history at the API is phenomenal with no finish worse than T15 in the past five years (four starts). Combine that with his form and I think he’s in line for another great showing. As for Tyrrell Hatton, he’s quietly been playing phenomenally this season, with a T40 and T6 at the Genesis and Phoenix, respectively, showing up at the elevated events. Given that he also has a win and a T2 in his past three starts here, I think he asserts himself on the leaderboard this week.
Will Zalatoris to Finish Top 10 (+240)
If it’s a loaded field and Will Zalatoris is betting, I’m going to look for ways to get him on my card. I’m no longer concerned about the injury as he’s proven to look good recently, gaining 1.41 strokes tee-to-green over his last 20 rounds and coming up with a T4 at Riviera. Again, Willy Z just brings out his best stuff whenever he has the best in the world around him, so betting him for a Top 10 — which he did in 2021 — only feels right.
Longshot pick to win Arnold Palmer Invitational: Min Woo Lee (+15000)
Min Woo Lee didn’t win as our outright pick last week but our longshot from last week, Ben Taylor, came up with a Top 5 finish. Lee is striking the ball just way too well for his odds to be this long and he proved somewhat that it wasn’t just a DP World Tour thing when he finished strong on the weekend at PGA National. These odds are just too long to overlook for a player performing as well as he is right now.