A Saturday conclusion at the Farmers Insurance Open has given us an extra day of prep for 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am bets, and my body clock has been completely out of sorts ever since. It’s a return to normalcy at Pebble Beach now though, as we’re back to our regularly schedule Thursday-Sunday programming.
Pebble Beach has become my favorite site in golf. It was always always my favorite course to play in the old Tiger Woods video game days, and I’ve hit a winner here every time I’ve bet an event here between the 2019 U.S. Open and 2021 & 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. We’ll look to keep the record clean after this week, as we tap into the same formula that’s worked each time before.
Below we’ll go through my final betting card after my AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview. Click the odds anywhere in this article to place AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am bets at the best available prices in your state now.
HOW I BUILT MY AT&T PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM BETTING CARD
My initial initial inclination was to chase course history from a group of veterans with proven, repeated success at Pebble Beach (i.e. Matt Kuchar, Kevin Streelman, Nick Taylor, etc.), but it appears sportsbooks have over-valued course history compared to recent form. That’s a bit of a rarity in golf week-to-week, but with shorter odds than expected, I pivoted to favor a younger group of players with proven results on comp short, coastal, and windy setups, given how many examples of comp courses we’ve seen over the last three months between the Bermuda Championship, Mayakoba Championship, RSM Classic, and Sony Open.
An Ode to Sebastian Munoz
It was a difficult week for me as we mourn the loss of Sebastian Munoz to the LIV Tour. He is a man who gave me hope, and something to look forward to every single Thursday. Since documenting my bets in 2020, I have employed no betting strategy more profitable than blindly betting Sebastian Munoz as First Round Leader each week. It was an incredible journey which resulted in four cashed FRL bets between the 2020 ZOZO Championship, 2021 John Deere Classic, 2021 RSM Classic, and 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson.
Munoz FRL was more than just a bet. It became a community. A brotherhood. A constant to rely on in times of uncertainty. A roller coaster full of left and right turns. It’s sad to see this chapter come to an end, but there is no ill will here. I offer a simple thank you to our Columbian friend for all the good times, and wish him well for all Thursdays to come.
In tribute, I have decided I will not partake in FRL betting this week, instead using this Thursday as a moment of silence to reflect on his PGA TOUR memory. To those of you who too have celebrated a Munoz FRL, I would encourage you to consider doing the same in solidarity.
Bye bye, FRL Sebastian. We’ll miss you in the saddest fashion. You’re 5,000 candles in the wind.
From a unit allocation standpoint, FRL bets have been removed, but Outrights and Props remain the same for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
- Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
- Props – 3.2U in to pay out 3U+ each
Click on any of the odds below for AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am bets and the best available prices across legal sportsbooks in your state.
AT&T PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)
Seamus Power
My Bet: +2700
Best Odds Still Available:
Seamus Power set the 36-hole tournament scoring record here in 2022 after opening with a pair of 64s at Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill. He unfortunately came crashing down to Earth from there, shooting +3 over the weekend and fading to a T9 finish. Even still, it’s clear Power has the potential to go low on these courses, and he’ll enter this week in even better form.
Over his last four starts, he has a win at the Bermuda Championship, T3 at the Mayakoba Championship, and T5 at the RSM Classic. All three of those courses share the same short, positional, and coastal characteristics in store at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, making him one of the most popular bets of the week for good reason.
Thomas Detry
My Bet: +5000
Best Odds Still Available:
Like Power, Detry has proven to be at his best on short, windy, coastal comp courses. Since 2021, Detry has played seven other windy, coastal courses on the PGA TOUR between the Bermuda Championship, Mayakoba Championship, Scottish Open, and Corales Puntacana, and he’s finished inside the top-25 in all seven appearances. He ranks No. 7 in Comp Course History, and No. 1 in the all important range of Par-4: 350-450, where 40% of holes across the three courses rotation will funnel to. With four top-15 finishes already this season, I expected 30-1 to be a fair price for the Belgian, so I’m happy to jump on the discounted value here.
Alex Smalley
My Bet: +6500
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Furthering the trend of success on the coast, Smalley has also been a standout in this field, ranking top-20 in both Comp Course history and scoring in Comp Short & Windy conditions. Since his debut on TOUR in 2020, Smalley has already posted 10 top-15 finishes, with eight coming on comp coastal courses. Leading into the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am this year, Smalley’s irons have been firing, gaining in six consecutive events, and ranking top-10 in the field in both SG: APP and Opportunities Gained. With three top-11 finishes over his last six starts, Smalley should come in to this strong course fit with confidence and form.
Ben Griffin
My Bet: +6500
Best Odds Still Available:
The No. 1 overall player in my model this week, Griffin continues to impress in his rookie season with high finish after high finish, regardless of course fit. He’s made it through the cut in each of his first 10 starts his rookie season, with seven finishes inside the top-32 within that span. Three top-12 finishes between the Wyndham Championship, Bermuda Championship, and Sony Open begin to illustrate that Griffin’s game may be best suited for these shorter, positional layouts. He ranks top-3 in terms of Proximity 75-150 and Par-4: 350-450 scoring, a skillset that tends to travel across short courses. While this will be his AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am debut, Griffin has shown no trouble acclimating to new courses quickly, and his performance on other comp courses suggests he may be in store for another high finish in Monterey.
David Lipsky
My Bet: +7000
Best Odds Still Available:
The Spotlight feature of the Tournament Preview has been a good omen to kick off 2023, already producing winners in Si Woo Kim and Max Homa, so here’s to hoping history repeats itself again. A short, wind-exposed, second-shot course with emphasis on scrambling around tight greens is a quintessential fit for Lipsky’s game. He is the only player in the field to rank top-12 in Good Drives Gained, SG: APP, and SG: ARG, and has specialized on shorter layouts, ranking top-11 in both Proximity 75-150 and Par-4: 350-450. Lipsky finished T24 in his debut here last year, but with two top-10 finishes over his last four starts at the Sony Open and Mayakoba Championship, his form is significantly improved entering this event in 2023.
Robby Shelton
My Bet: +9000
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When getting to the longshot range of the odds board beyond 90-1, it’s important to hone in on players with elite skillsets important for the course set up who have proven win equity. Shelton checks those boxes with two Korn Ferry Tour victories since June 2022 and ranking top-20 in SG: APP, SG: ARG, and SG: TOT this 2023 season. Off to a hot start with two top-10 finishes over his last four events, I like Shelton’s upside for this price.
Nick Hardy
My Bet: +10000
Best Odds Still Available:
Hardy lacks the short game consistency of Lipsky and Shelton, but makes up for it with elite ball striking, which is a bonus at any PGA TOUR course, but especially so at one as wind-exposed as the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Hardy ranks No. 4 in the field in SG: Ball Striking, and is top-11 in both SG: OTT and SG: APP. At 100-1, he’s just a cooperative putter away from contending this week.
Ben Martin
My Bet: +30000 (Each Way)
Best Odds Still Available:
Vaughn Taylor and Ted Potter Jr. have each won this event at pre-tournament odds beyond 300-1 dating back to 2016, so I’m not afraid to reach back deep for one last bomb on the card. Martin has proven to be most comfortable on shorter layouts, ranking top-20 in both Proximity: 75-150 and Par-4: 350-450. He’s one of just seven players to rank top-30 in Good Drives Gained, SG: APP, and Comp Short & Windy Conditions, so with a pair of top-30 finishes at this event over his last three trips, I think there’s plenty of upside at this number.
AT&T PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM PROPS (3.0 UNITS)
Top-20 Finish: Viktor Hovland
My Bet: +105
Best Odds Still Available:
Maybe this is all just an elaborate ploy by DraftKings to build up everyone’s bankrolls the week before the Super Bowl. There’s no other reason to justify why Viktor Hovland, a consensus 12-1 co-favorite to win this event, should have + odds in the top-20 market. He’s in a class of his own in terms of leading form and course fit on windy tracks, with three wins on comp conditions since 2022 between the Hero World Challenge and Mayakoba Championship.
Top-20 Finish: Jordan Spieth
My Bet: +115
Best Odds Still Available:
Like Hovland, this was a misprice on DraftKings only available for a short period of time, but I couldn’t pass up doubling down on another co-favorite at + odds. Spieth has displayed brilliance at this event each year regardless of leading form, finishing top-22 in nine of his first 10 appearances. He’s one bad round removed from holding the first round lead at the Sony Open, so I’m not panicked about the state of his form, as he returns to a comfort course versus a comparatively weak field.
Top-20 Finish: Ben Martin
My Bet: +750
Best Odds Still Available:
I love Ben Martin in the top-40 market this week, but with placement allocations tied up in the two favorites, I’ll swing for the fences on a top-20 bet instead. Martin has finished just outside the top-20 in two of his last three appearances at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and is four starts removed from the RSM Classic where he teed it up in the Sunday final pairing.
ONE AND DONE
My Pick: Jordan Spieth
It’s difficult to project exactly how popular of an OAD selection Jordan Spieth will be this week. On one hand, he’s a co-favorite at a course he’s finished top-10 at in three consecutive years, and is a past winner at. On the other hand, there may be questions about his form coming in off of a missed cut in his last start, with plenty of other upcoming course fits for him between the Valero Texas Open, Charles Schwab Challenge, and The Masters. I’m content to try other options when we get to those events down the line, as there’s a chance we don’t see Spieth at shorter odds than this the rest of the season.
If not Spieth, I would also consider Seamus Power, Maverick McNealy, or Tom Hoge as OAD picks.
AT&T PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM OPEN: THE BETTING CARD
That’ll do it for this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am bets. Best of luck this week with your own Pebble Beach Pro-Am bets, and see you on Sunday for the 2023 WM Phoenix Open Preview. For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.
AT&T PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM BETS: ODDS TO WIN
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