VSiN Analytics NBA Betting Trends Report – February 12

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The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, February 12, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

NBA Betting Trend Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, TORONTO, ATLANTA, LA CLIPPERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, NEW ORLEANS, GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 27-19 ATS record (58.7%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 46 games was only 3.6% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK, GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, NEW YORK, DENVER, DALLAS

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA ML, CLEVELAND ML, DALLAS ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of the handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IND-CHA, PHI-CLE, DEN-MIL, NOP-MEM, WSH-DAL, GSW-UTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): SAS-TOR

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER instead in GSW-UTA, PLAY OVER instead in WSH-DAL

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 170-115 SU and 168-109 ATS (60.6%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
2/12: MINNESOTA at LA Clippers
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (+4.5 at LAC)

2/12: UTAH vs. Golden State
System Match: PLAY UTAH (+1 vs GSW)

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 115-82 SU but 83-112-1 ATS (42.6%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
2/12: FADE MILWAUKEE vs. Denver
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (+1 vs DEN)

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 53-27 SU and 52-26-2 ATS (66.7%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last two seasons.
2/12: UTAH vs. Golden State
System Match: PLAY UTAH (+1 vs GSW)

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest were 34-14 SU & 33-13-2 ATS (71.7%) hosting teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
2/12: UTAH vs. Golden State
System Match: PLAY UTAH (+1 vs GSW)

* Over the total was 99-64 (60.7%) over the last two seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
2/12: Over the total in LA CLIPPERS-MINNESOTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 223)

2/12: Over the total in UTAH-GOLDEN STATE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 241)

* Under the total was 88-54 (62%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
2/12: Under the total in TORONTO-SAN ANTONIO
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 236.5)

* Over the total was 48-32 (60%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on 3+DaysRest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
2/12: Over the total in UTAH-GOLDEN STATE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 241)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* ATLANTA is 19-35 SU and 16-37 ATS in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
2/12: Fade ATLANTA vs. Chicago
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-4 vs CHI)

* ATLANTA was 30-12 Over the total in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario last season
2/12: Over the total in CHICAGO-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 237)

* GOLDEN STATE is 20-49 SU and 20-49 ATS on the Road in the One Day Rest scenario over the last two seasons
2/12: FADE GOLDEN STATE at Utah
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-1 at UTA)

* MEMPHIS is 49-17 SU and 39-26 ATS at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last two seasons
2/12: MEMPHIS vs. New Orleans
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+9 vs NOP)

* SAN ANTONIO was 3-20 SU and 7-16 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario last season
2/12: Fade SAN ANTONIO at Toronto
System Match: FADE SAN ANTONIO (+5.5 at TOR)

* TORONTO is 29-8 SU and 27-10 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
2/12: TORONTO vs. San Antonio
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-5.5 vs SAS)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 118-32 SU and 97-53 ATS (64.7%) run.
System Matches: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-4.5 vs MIN)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 82-51 SU and 80-50-3 ATS (61.5%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (*only if they become 4.5 pt or less underdogs at TOR*)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 134-28 SU but just 64-96-2 ATS (40%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE DALLAS (-13.5 vs WSH)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 72-58 (55.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 139-108 (56.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 174-127 (57.8%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in IND-CHA (o/u at 238.5), PLAY OVER in PHI-CLE (o/u at 230), PLAY OVER in WSH-DAL (o/u at 248)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

EXTREME SCORING SYSTEMS

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 179-112 SU but 127-160-4 ATS (44.3%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 24-32 ATS.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-13.5 vs WSH)

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 126-76 SU but 87-111-4 ATS (43.9%) in the follow-up contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons. Included among this is a 73-98 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match: FADE DENVER (-1 at MIL)

QUALITY OF LOSSES/WINS CAN MATTER

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 232-179 SU but 178-222-11 ATS (44.5%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 32-57 ATS.
System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE (+1 vs. DEN), FADE DALLAS (-13.5 vs. WSH)

UNUSUAL SHOOTING PERFORMANCE SYSTEMS

NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 256-202 (55.9%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in CHI-ATL (o/u at 237)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 201-221 SU and 188-231-3 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Matches: FADE CHARLOTTE (+10 vs IND), FADE MINNESOTA (+4.5 at LAC)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 209-210 SU and 186-221-10 ATS (45.7%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.

System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (+4.5 at LAC)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 109-138 SU and 108-133-6 ATS (44.8%) in that next contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (+4.5 at LAC)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 143-116 SU and 149-103-7 ATS (59.1%) run.
System Matches: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+10 vs IND), PLAY MEMPHIS (+9 vs NOP), PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-1 at UTA)

UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 106-76 SU and 106-73-3 ATS (59.2%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+1 vs DEN)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games.

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 25-48 SU but 40-33 ATS (54.8%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+13.5 at DAL)

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 77-14 SU but 36-53-3 ATS (40.4%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-10 vs PHI), FADE DALLAS (-13.5 vs WSH)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 4.6% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (146-166 ATS, 46.8%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (197-186 ATS, 51.4%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER FADING SAN ANTONIO (+5.5 at TOR)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 55-49 SU and 60-42-3 ATS (58.8%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+13.5 at DAL)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 165-205 ATS (44.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 20-95 SU and 47-65-3 ATS (42%).
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-10 vs PHI), FADE SAN ANTONIO (+5.5 at TOR), FADE MEMPHIS (+9 vs NOP)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 35-54 ATS (39.3%) in the next game, including 16-29 ATS (35.5%) on the road over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-10 vs PHI)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE +1 (+3.7), 2. CHICAGO +4 (+2.5), 3. MEMPHIS +9 (+1.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -10 (+2.1), 2(tie). TORONTO -5.5 (+0.5) and LA CLIPPERS -4.5 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +4 (+2.6), 2. MILWAUKEE +1 (+2.2), 3. MINNESOTA +4.5 (+1.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -13.5 (+2.0), 2. TORONTO -5.5 (+1.5), 3. INDIANA -10 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-ATL OVER 237 (+5.2), 2. SAS-TOR OVER 236.5 (+1.5), 3. NYK-HOU OVER 221.5 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). WSH-DAL UNDER 248 (-2.3) and MIN-LAC UNDER 223 (-2.3), 3. NOP-MEM UNDER 222.5 (-2.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE +1 (+6.5), 2. MEMPHIS +9 (+2.5), 3. CHICAGO +4 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -13.5 (+0.8), 2. CLEVELAND -10 (+0.7), 3. TORONTO -5.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-ATL OVER 237 (+5.0), 2. GSW-UTA OVER 241 (+1.6), 3. SAS-TOR OVER 236.5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-MEM UNDER 222.5 (-3.7), 2. WSH-DAL UNDER 248 (-3.2), 3. IND-CHA UNDER 238.5 (-0.4)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(577) CHICAGO at (578) ATLANTA
* Underdogs are 4-1 ATS in the last five of the CHI-ATL series
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS

(581) DENVER at (582) MILWAUKEE
* DENVER is on an 8-2 ATS surge at Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS

(587) GOLDEN STATE at (588) UTAH
* GOLDEN STATE is on 7-1-1 ATS run versus Utah
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS

(571) INDIANA at (572) CHARLOTTE
* Road teams are 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight of the IND-CHA series
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

(589) MINNESOTA at (590) LA CLIPPERS
* MINNESOTA is 5-1 ATS in the last six versus LA Clippers
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

(583) NEW ORLEANS at (584) MEMPHIS
* Road teams have swept the last three ATS in the NOP-MEM series
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS

(579) NEW YORK at (580) HOUSTON
* NEW YORK is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 versus Houston
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS

(573) PHILADELPHIA at (574) CLEVELAND
* The last three games of the PHI-CLE series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(575) SAN ANTONIO at (576) TORONTO
* TORONTO has won the last six ATS versus San Antonio
System Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS

(585) WASHINGTON at (586) DALLAS
* WASHINGTON has won the last four ATS at Dallas
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS

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