Ahead of Thursday night’s NBA Western Conference clash in the Bay Area, we’re set to provide our Warriors vs. Clippers prediction and best bet.
In the absence of some key personnel, the Warriors have played very well recently. They are on a three-game winning streak and have four straight wins at home. The Clippers, meanwhile, have lost three straight games, including a home defeat to the Timberwolves on Tuesday.
The Clippers arrive in San Francisco as three-and-a-half-point favorites with the total set at 232 points. Those interested in the Warriors can take the points or +140 on the moneyline.
Total Under 232 Points (-110)
I’m not opposed to those who want to back the Warriors as home underdogs, but it feels slightly unnerving to buy high on a team missing so many weapons.
Stephen Curry remains out for head coach Steve Kerr due to a lingering leg injury while Andrew Wiggins is also slated to miss out tonight for personal reasons. Elsewhere, Andre Igoudala remains an absentee for the Warriors while Jordan Poole’s illness looks to be subsiding as he’s probable, but it’s still worth noting.
Just between Curry and Wiggins, though, this is a Golden State offense missing 46.5 combined points per game. Additionally, the Warriors see their offensive rating drop 6.4 and 4.5 points when Curry and Wiggins aren’t on the floor, respectively.
Plus, if Poole isn’t at full strength, will he be able to contribute his normal 20.8 points per game?
Only time will tell, but all of that is worry enough and is magnified against a Clippers defense that ranks 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency across the entire season having faced the seventh-hardest set of opponents, according to dunksandthrees.com.
While the fact Los Angeles allowed 124 points to a Curry-less Golden State is slightly concerning, this feels like a good sell-high spot on a Warriors offense that has faced three teams in their past four games with an adjusted defensive rating of 17th or worse.
At the same time, this Clippers offense isn’t exactly a marvel at the moment and is going up against a Golden State defense that has played better at home this season.
Across their first 32 games at the Chase Center, Kerr’s side has allowed 111.9 non-overtime points per game, down from a season average of 117.9. Against the Clippers at this same venue, they held them to 107 points.
Beyond that matchup data, this under appears to be a popular pick among respected bettors.
Per the Action Network PRO report, this market has received only 36 % of all bets, but 60 % of the total handle.
Thus, bettors could do well to place themselves on the side of the professionals and back the under.