Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs Game 6 Odds, Expert Picks & Predictions

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This article is part of our NHL Picks series.

NHL Bets Today: Expert NHL Picks and Props for Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs

The Boston Bruins travel to meet the Toronto Maple Leafs for Game 6 of their Eastern Conference First Round best-of-seven series on Thursday night. Puck drop is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on TBS. The Bruins hold a 3-2 series lead.

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We have a little bit of everything heading into this Game 6. The Bruins have won both previous games at Scotiabank Arena. We have the Maple Leafs missing a major star, as they’ll be without Auston Matthews for a second straight game due to an illness. We have ghosts of playoff failures past. We have recent series dominance by the Bruins. We also the specter of an unexpected Game 7, should Toronto be able to exorcise its postseason demons, at least for tonight.

The Bruins had an opportunity to close out the Maple Leafs on home ice in Game 5, but Toronto had other ideas.

Head coach Sheldon Keefe, who is sitting on a boiling hot coaches’ seat, switched gears ahead of Game 5, changing to Joseph Woll, while handing a ball cap and clipboard to Ilya Samsonov. That strategy paid off well, Cotton. The 25-year-old St. Louis native backstopped the Leafs to a 2-1 win in overtime, just his 2nd career postseason victory, stopping 27 of the 28 shots he faced. Matthew Knies provided the heroics in the extra session, notching his second goal of the postseason with helpers to John Tavares and Ilya Lyubushkin.

Woll was able to keep the Bruins off the board, for the most part. He was beaten by Trent Frederic at 13:54 of the first period, with an assist to “The Big Rig”, Pat Maroon. Frederic now has three goals in this series, tied with Leaf killer Brad Marchand and Jake DeBrusk for the team lead.

Knies has been the unlikely offensive hero for the Leafs, leading the team with two goals. Not 69-goal scorer Matthews, who has a goal and three points in his four games played. Max Domi had a helper on Jake McCabe‘s regulation goal in Game 5, and he leads the team with four points, with one goal. He scooted up to the top scoring line with Matthews on the shelf.

William Nylander is scoreless in two games. Morgan Rielly has just one assist in five games. Mitchell Marner has a goal and three points. Tavares has two points, despite the helper on the OT winner from Knies in Game 5. It needs to be all hands on deck for the high-priced talent, especially with Matthews sidelined again for Game 6. 

The big-money players need to have a big-money performance in Game 6 in T-Dot, something which has been lacking for several years since former GM Kyle Dubas assembled this group of Ferraris with a Hyundai engine.

The Bruins have been there and done that. While they have lost two in a row at home, the road team has won four in a row, and eight of the past nine meetings overall. We saw Dallas have enough of that last night against Vegas, but that’s the Stars. The Maple Leafs have extraneous, almost supernatural forces, working against them.

I can’t, with a good conscience, bet the Maple Leafs in an important playoff game, especially without Matthews.

NHL Moneyline Bets for Bruins at Maple Leafs

  • Bruins ML (-125 at DraftKings)

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The Under has connected at a 3-0-1 pace in the past four games since a 5-1 win back in Game 1 at TD Garden cashed the Over – barely. The total pushed in Game 3 in Toronto, as the B’s doubled up the Leafs 4-2, and we had a 3-1 win by Boston in Game 4.

The lean here is go low, especially when we’re taking a 69-goal scorer out of the lineup again which is a massive loss for the Maple Leafs. The Under is 3-2-1 in the past six games at home for the Maple Leafs, as it is.

For the Bruins, the Under has cashed at a 6-1-1 clip in the past eight games on the road. Look for the total to go low, as Boston won’t take a lot of stupid chances, risking an odd-man break the other way to give the Leafs life. And Toronto will equally be careful, trying not to go in a hole, taking the home crowd out of it.

NHL Totals Bets for Bruins at Maple Leafs

  • Under 5.5 (-105 at Caesars)

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NHL Players Props for Bruins at Maple Leafs

We’re expecting a defensive slog in Game 6 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, so it’s a good idea to avoid any Anytime Goal Scorer (AGS) props, especially on the Maple Leafs side. They have had just one multi-goal scorer (Knies) in this entire series.

Looking to the home side in this standalone game in the NHL on Thursday, Domi is working on the top scoring line in place of Matthews. He took three shots in Game 5, and he connected for an assist. For the opportunity to nearly double up, all he needs to do is take three shots on goal (SOG). Domi has 3+ SOG in three of five games in this series. With his new spot on the top scoring line, as well as his work on the power-play unit, I like him to get to at least three shots. It’s too tempting to pass up.

  • Max Domi 3+ Shots on Goal (+192 at FanDuel)

For the visitors, Jeremy Swayman is likely to face a lot of rubber from the desperate Maple Leafs. The Boston backstop has made 28 or more saves (in 60 minutes) in three of the past four games. He was tasked with making 31 saves in Game 5, which went to OT, but he eclipsed 27 or more saves in regulation. For this prop to cash, it’s regulation saves, not total saves, should overtime(s) be needed. It’s still a good bet.

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