Boston College and Miami have played each other twice this season, and in both outings Quinten Post has given the Hurricanes fits. With Miami entering tonight on a nine-game skid, our college basketball picks expect another big game from Post.
Round 1 of the ACC tournament comes to a close when the Miami Hurricanes meet the Boston College Eagles in Washington D.C. tonight.
Boston College snuffed out a four-game losing skid with back-to-back wins to wrap up conference play, jumping to the No. 11 seed in the ACC tournament. One of those wins was a 67-57 road victory at Miami with the Eagles winning outright as 6.5-point underdogs.
The Hurricanes have had a rough fall from grace since making the Final Four last year. They drag a nine-game losing streak into the ACC tournament and could be without starting guard Nijel Pack, as he’s struggled with a lingering knee injury. The Canes have covered twice in those previous nine games.
I dissect the college basketball odds for this ACC tourney tilt and give my free college basketball picks for Miami vs. Boston College on March 12.
Boston College vs Miami best odds
Boston College vs Miami picks and predictions
Boston College big man Quinten Post has enjoyed his past matchups with Miami, putting up 19 and 23 points in the Eagles’ two run-ins with the Hurricanes this season.
Those efforts are part of an offensive push from the 7-foot senior in the final month and a half of the schedule, with Post pumping up his average to 17.3 ppg over the last 10 contests of the ACC calendar.
Post is a matchup issue for any team, with inside-out scoring. His size and touch make him a threat around the rim and on the offensive glass, but it’s his ability to step out and knock down the 3-pointer that has burned Miami. Post went a collective 6-for-11 in the two clashes with the Canes.
“He’s an NBA guy,” Hurricanes head coach Jim Larranaga told the Miami Herald about Post. “He probably won’t get drafted because he’s older, but he can shoot the three, he can post up, he’s got a great jump hook, he rebounds, and he knows how to play.”
Miami is just a mess defensively, no matter where on the court. The Hurricanes have hemorrhaged points during this nine-game losing skid, allowing foes to rack up more than 76 points in that span.
Post has recorded 15 or more points in seven of his 10 games since February, with two of those sub-15-point efforts coming in limited minutes due to foul trouble. In his games against the Canes, he shot a combined 15-for-27 from the floor as well as 6 of 9 from the foul line and snatched four total offensive rebounds — an area Miami has struggled with to end the season.
Player projections for Post are calling for more than 19 points in today’s ACC tournament opener (including two made triples), which stacks up well with his player prop markets setting his scoring total at 16.5.
Some sportsbooks have the Over 16.5 points juiced as high as -125, but you can find it as low as -115 if you shop around.
My best bet: Quinten Post Over 16.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Boston College vs Miami same-game parlay
Quinten Post Over 16.5 points
Post Over 1.5 made threes
Wooga Poplar Over 1.5 made threes
Post is playing his best ball of the season entering the ACC tournament and torched the Canes for big days already this season.
The 7-footer can stretch the floor with his outside shooting and Miami’s perimeter defense is among the worst on the land. He’s 6-for-11 on triples vs. the Canes this season.
With Nijel Pack likely out, there are more touches to go around. Wooga Poplar has been very aggressive from outside recently, attempting six or more 3-pointers in eight of his last eight games (making two or more in six of those games).
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Boston College vs Miami spread and Over/Under analysis
With a recent win over the Hurricanes, Boston College opened as a 1.5-point neutral-site favorite for this Round 1 matchup. But as money came in on Miami, the spread jumped the fence and sits as big as Canes -2.5 as of Tuesday morning.
The Eagles’ solid finish to the year may seem more appealing than Miami’s nine-game skid, but Boston College is by no means a good team. It has four wins in the previous eight games, all of which were against either Miami or Louisville — the two bottom teams in the ACC.
The Eagles are 13-17-1 against the spread on the year, going 6-9 ATS in road or neutral-site games. Boston College beat Miami 85-77 at home as a 1-point fave on February 17 and edged the Canes 67-57 as six-point road pups on March 6.
Jim Larranaga couldn’t capture the magic of Miami’s run to the Final Four last year and closed this season as one of the biggest disappointments in the country. The Hurricanes couldn’t find their footing in ACC play and wrapped the conference calendar 7-11-2 ATS.
Tuesday’s total hit the board at 149.5 points but has been dropped to as low as 147 points as of Tuesday morning. These ACC rivals went 1-1 O/U in their two matchups, most recently staying below the closing total of 154 points on March 6.
The Eagles are 18-12-1 O/U overall with a 9-7 O/U count as a favorite. Boston College played Under totals of 154 and 151 in the final two games of ACC play, but had gone Over in each of the six game prior.
As for Miami, it’s 14-17 Over/Under, including a 5-9 O/U record away from South Beach. The Hurricanes stayed Under the total in six of nine games during this current freefall.
Boston College vs Miami betting trend to know
Miami has won outright on the moneyline in only 18 of its last 35 games (-19.85 units). Find more college basketball betting trends for Boston College vs. Miami.
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Boston College vs Miami game info
| Location: | Capital One Arena, Washington, DC |
| Date: | Tuesday, March 12, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ACC Network |
Boston College vs Miami opening odds
- Moneyline (ML): Boston College -115 | Miami -104
- Against the spread (ATS): Boston College -1.5 (-102) | Miami +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): Over 149.5 (-115) | Under 149.5 (-105)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
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