Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bet for the ACC Tournament between Miami and Boston College.
Boston College vs Miami (-1.5): O/U 148.5
Boston College and Miami meet in the first round of the ACC Tournament with a line that opened in favor of Boston College -1.5 and flipped to Miami -1.5.
The Eagles won both meetings versus Miami, 85-77 and 67-57, yet are the underdogs. Miami has lost nine straight games entering the tournament, but the Canes have dealt with multiple injuries that have dragged them down.
Wooga Poplar returned from injury against Boston College, scoring 7 points on 2-for-12 shooting. However, Poplar followed that up with 12 points on 6-of-9 at Florida State. Nijel Pack went 0-for-5 versus BC and missed the FSU game, so he’s likely out.
While Boston College +1.5 is tempting here, I will ride with Miami. The Hurricanes had a win expectancy of 88.4% at one point against Boston College in the prior meeting and 75.6% at halftime. Neither team is “good”, but it’s hard to beat someone three straight times, especially when you’re not one of the best squads in your conference.
I was on Miami -5.5 in the previous loss versus BC because a second-half meltdown. I ran it back and played the Hurricanes ML at -118 odds on FanDuel. I’d go out to -130.
Teams that lost both regular season meetings and are favorites in conference tournaments win outright at a 68.8% rate since 2013 (161-73 ML) and are 131-99-4 ATS (56.9%). This trend is 1-0 this year after Lehigh beat Boston University on Sunday.
Pick: Miami ML (1.5u)
Season Record: 67-59 (53.1%) +2.3 units
CBB Futures In My Pocket:
Risk 2u: UConn to win the Big East Tournament (-135)
1u: Houston win the National Championship (+700)
1u: UConn to make the Final Four (+110)
1u: Iowa State to make the Final Four (+550)
1u: South Florida to win the AAC Tournament (+500)
1u: Illinois to win the Big Ten Tournament (+500)
1u: Morehead State to win the OVC Tournament (+105)
1u: Samford to win the SoCon Tournament (+155)
1u: Stetson and Vermont Conference Parlay (+103)
1u: Toledo to win the MAC Tournament (+340)
0.1u: Ohio State to win the Big Ten Tournament (+5000)
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