Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Game 5 Predictions, Player Props, Odds & Injuries (May 1)

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Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum shoots a three over Miami Heat forward Caleb Martin

Apr 29, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) takes a 3-point shot in front of Miami Heat forward Caleb Martin (16) during the second quarter of game four of the first round for the 2024 NBA playoffs at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Michael Laughlin-USA TODAY Sports

  • The Boston Celtics can close out their series with the Miami Heat in Game 5 on Wednesday night
  • Boston has won three of the four games by at least 14 points
  • Below, find the Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Game 5 odds, predictions, and player props on May 1

Heavily favored to win the Eastern Conference, the Boston Celtics (67-19, 38-5 home, 45-37-4 ATS) can move a step closer to doing just that on Wednesday night when they host the Miami Heat (48-40, 25-18 away, 44-42-2 ATS) in Game 5 of their best-of-seven first-round series at TD Garden. The Celtics lead the series 3-1 and, with a win tonight, will set-up a second-round matchup with either the #4 Cleveland Cavaliers or #5 Orlando Magic in the 2024 NBA playoff bracket.

With the Heat missing Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier and Jaime Jaquez Jr, Boston is a massive 14-point favorite in the Heat vs Celtics Game 5 odds. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:40 pm ET.

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Game 5 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Miami Heat +14 (-112) +660 Over 200.5 (-110)
Boston Celtics -14 (-108) -1000 Under 200.5 (-110)

On the moneyline, the Celtics are -1000 home favorites to end the series tonight with the Heat sitting at +660 to force a Game 6 back in Miami. The game total is just 200.5. The first four games of the series averaged 199.5 points per game, and Miami has been held to 94 points or fewer in each of its three losses in the series.

Odds as of May 1 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Claim the FanDuel sign up bonus to bet on the 2024 NBA playoffs. 

In the NBA conference odds, Boston’s odds to win the East shortened to -230 after dominating Game 4 in Miami (102-88).  The C’s remain the favorites in the NBA championship odds, as well, at +119, slightly ahead of the defending-champion Denver Nuggets.

Celtics Dominate Game 4 to Take 3-1 Stranglehold

Led by a playoff career-high 38 points from point guard Derrick White, the Celtics cruised to a 14-point win in Game 4 on Monday, shooting 8-of-15 from beyond the arc. White, who was 15-of-25 overall from the field, was the only Boston starter to shoot better than 50% from the field. As a team, the Celtics shot just 41.9% in Game 4, but they finished +4 on the boards, held Miami to 40.7% from the floor, and forced 13 turnovers.

The lone bright spot for Miami was center Bam Adebayo, who had 25 points, a game-high 17 rebounds, and five assists in a losing effort, shooting 11-of-22 from the floor.

YouTube video

Boston’s edge on the boards has been a massive difference throughout the series. The Celtics are second in the postseason in rebound percentage (53.0%), trailing only Minnesota, which finished with a 58.2-41.8% edge on the glass while sweeping Phoenix.

Already without Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier, the Heat have now lost guard Jaime Jacquez Jr (11.9 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.6 APG) to a hip-flexor strain. Jacquez is averaging 12.8 PPG in the postseason and played at least 31 minutes in Games 1, 2, and 3.

On the Boston side, Kristaps Porzingis (20.1 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 2.0 APG) is out with a calf injury. The Celtics center was averaging 14 PPG and 5.6 RPG in the first three games of the series.

MIA vs BOS Player Props (Game 5)

Player Points Rebounds Assists Three-Pointers Made
Al Horford (BOS) 9.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105) 7.5 (Ov -130 | Un +110) 2.5 (Ov -142 | Un +120) 1.5 (Ov +122 | Un +102)
Bam Adebayo (MIA) 21.5 (Ov -102 | Un -118) 11.5 (Ov +110 | Un -130) 4.5 (Ov +140 | Un -166) 0.5 (Ov +140 | Un -166)
Caleb Martin (MIA) 12.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) 4.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105) 2.5 (Ov +136 | Un -162) 1.5 (Ov -142 | Un +120)
Derrick White (BOS) 16.5 (Ov -102 | Un -118) 4.5 (Ov -102 | Un -118) 3.5 (Ov -175 | Un +145) 3.5 (Ov +142 | Un -170)
Haywood Highsmith (MIA) 6.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) 3.5 (Ov -125 | Un +105) OFF 1.5 (Ov +190 | Un -230)
Jaylen Brown (BOS) 22.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115) 6.5 (Ov -122 | Un +102) 2.5 (Ov -135 | Un +114) 2.5 (Ov +130 | Un -155)
Jayson Tatum (BOS) 27.5 (Ov -100 | Un -120) 10.5 (Ov +120 | Un -142) 5.5 (Ov +110 | Un -130) 2.5 (Ov -130 | Un +110)
Jrue Holiday (BOS) 11.5 (Ov -108 | Un -112) 5.5 (Ov +120 | Un -142) 4.5 (Ov +120 | Un  -142) 1.5 (Ov -125 | Un +105)
Nikola Jovic (MIA) 9.5 (Ov +105 | Un -125) 5.5 (Ov +105 | Un -125) OFF 1.5 (Ov -118 | Un -102)
Payton Pritchard (BOS) 6.5 (Ov +102 | Un -122) 2.5 (Ov -135 | Un +114) 2.5 (Ov -148 | Un +124) 1.5 (Ov +145 | Un -175)
Sam Hauser (BOS) 6.5 (Ov +114 | Un -135) 2.5 (Ov -135 | Un +114) OFF 1.5 (Ov -155 | Un +130)
Tyler Herro (MIA) 20.5 (Ov -112 | Un -108) 4.5 (Ov -125 | Un +105) 5.5 (Ov +105 | Un -125) 3.5 (Ov +130 | Un -155)

NBA player props from DraftKings on May 1.

Tatum has the highest point total, as he has for each game in the series, at 27.5 O/U. Adebayo’s total has increased from 19.5 in Game 4 to 21.5 in Game 5 as he continues to shoulder the Miami offense. The Heat center also has the highest rebound total for Game 5 at 11.5.

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Predictions for Game 5

The Heat will be throwing everything at the wall in Wednesday’s elimination game, and they already pulled off one massive upset in Game 2 of the series. But with Jacquez joining a long list of significant injuries, picking a Heat win is a bridge too far for me. I do expect Adebayo to have another big night, though.

On the Boston side, Tatum has only exceeded 27.5 points once in the series, and that was in the Game 2 loss. I don’t expect Joe Mazzulla to ride his superstar too hard in a game that’s likely to be fully in Boston’s control.

MIA vs BOS Game 5 picks:

  • Adebayo over 21.5 points (-102)
  • Tatum under 27.5 points (-120)
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