Orioles vs. Red Sox Bets: How to approach player props from Baltimore-Boston on April 11

There is some inclement weather to work around in Boston on Thursday, but it seems like it will be manageable for the final game of this Orioles–Red Sox series. With that in mind but appearing to be a minimal factor, we can focus on examining Grayson Rodriguez vs. Garrett Whitlock as these young arms get ready to square off.

Both starters can rack up strikeouts in a hurry, but the two offenses they’ll battle in this game are not equal — despite their similar output on Wednesday. Baltimore hitters have logged 249 at-bats against right-handed pitching. Yet, only 49 of those opportunities have resulted in strikeouts — meaning they haven’t even struck out 20% of the time across those at-bats. The Red Sox, on the other hand, have 82 K’s in 286 at-bats against right-handed pitching. So, they’ve struck out in over 25% of their at-bats against righties.

Knowing that, it’s worth noting how both lineups can throw a lot of lefty bats at Rodriguez and Whitlock. With that said, here’s how these two arms have done against left-handed hitters to start 2024, courtesy of their respective player pages in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:

GRAYSON RODRIGUEZ

GARRETT WHITLOCK

Whitlock’s strikeout prop has -141 odds and is set at 4.5. My lean was toward the under, but I was expecting to have a little more cushion. The under is still playable, given Whitlock only had four strikeouts last time out, but I’d much rather roll with Rodriguez in this one.

Baltimore’s righty is +105 to log over 6.5 strikeouts in Boston on Thursday. Last time out, Rodriguez needed the full length of his 6 1/3-inning outing to punch out seven. But in his opening outing of 2024, he only needed four frames to log seven K’s. Given Boston’s high rate of striking out against right-handed pitching and Rodriguez’s ability to handle left-handed hitters, there are a couple avenues he can take to get over this number. So, my pitcher prop for this one is Grayson Rodriguez over 6.5 strikeouts.

Now, here’s a look at how some of this game’s hitter have performed over their last five games against their hits line for Thursday’s matchup via the Consistency Sheets in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:

Mountcastle jumps out here with his hits line at 1.5. The odds on him logging two-plus hits is +195. I’m not necessarily ready to move on that, however, Mountcastle has logged two-plus hits in four of his 11 games played.

Instead, I like Mountcastle over 1.5 total bases at +120. He’s only gone over this number in 5 of 11 games, but between his number of multi-hit games and his six extra-base hits, he has shown strong potential toward this play. And while Mountcastle is known for being better against left-handed pitching, he’s had some success vs. Whitlock in his career. Plus, Mountcastle has a .872 OPS against right-handed pitching to start 2024.

If you’re looking to start a hits parlay, Mountcastle is the obvious bat I’m looking to first. Two other bats also jump out.

On Boston’s side of things, it’s the red-hot Tyler O’Neill. At some point, he’ll slow down — be it an abrupt shift or a slow, reasonable regression. But with Rafael Devers protecting him, pitchers simply can’t afford to get cute with O’Neill. Similarly, Adley Rutschman has a hefty trio right behind him in Anthony Santander, Ryan O’Hearn and Mountcastle. While Rutschman hasn’t run wild in the early going, he’s still found success. Combine those two factors with his familiarity for Whitlock and I really like this spot for him to simply get one hit.

A Mountcastle-O’Neill-Rutschman parlay provides +165 odds. If you’re playing Mountcastle’s total bases prop and want to manage your exposure to one hitter, an O’Neill-Rutschman parlay provides +100 odds.

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.